Tuesday, January 5, 2010

Obama Readying Immigration Overhaul Despite Risks

http://www.baltimoresun.com/health/sns-dc-immig29-final,0,5744314,full.story

A few comments:
1) The last fight in 2006 may or may not have damaged Hispanic voter opinion of the GOP.  Bush in 2004 did better than normal for GOP candidate, and McCain in 2008 did worse than normal.  It is unclear whether McCain's 2008 results were because of the 2006 immigration reform fight or because of other factors in the eleciton.
2) Democrats will continue to try to paint the GOP as a whites-only party, and a messy fight on immigration will give them ammunition.  This could make the 2008 Hispanic vote breakdown the start of a trend instead of an anomaly. 
3) It is unclear whether immigration reform will be pushed if the economy continues to suffer.  If unemployment remains at around 10%, ordinary voters may question in their minds the wisdom of granting amnesty to millions of undocumented workers. 

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